The AM market is growing and will continue to grow
The Atomic Layers: S10E20 (00287)
Atomic Layer of the Day:
Yesterday, Carolyn Schwaar published an article on ALL3DP comparing the market size estimates and forecasts for additive manufacturing made by leading analytics firms—including, of course, VoxelMatters, with whom I collaborate in this area.
It turns out that, compared to all others, VoxelMatters is the most conservative in assessing the current state of the market (2023 data), but the most optimistic when it comes to future projections (outlook to 2033):
Right now, together with & Federico Sher, we're working hard to finalize the 2024 polymer market report, which will be released very soon.
But today, here, I’d like to address a different issue that arose from Carolyn Schwaar’s article: the significant discrepancies between firms in estimating both the current value of the market and its future size.
Each firm uses different methods for researching the AM market. VoxelMatters relies on three sources—two internal and one external.
The first is the largest AM company database in the world (several thousand entries), many of which (hundreds) have been collaborating with VM research team for years, regularly submitting numerical data about their operations.
The second source is the data extracted from the articles published daily on VM portal. In short, every time a company releases a press release announcing machine sales, VoxelMatters not only writes about it but also feeds the figures into the internal research department database.
The third source includes publicly available financial reports from companies in Europe and other regions listed on stock exchanges. In case you didn’t know, companies with legal entity status in the European Union are required to publish financial data. These include sales figures for machines and materials, which allow for fairly precise estimations of market value.
These three sources both complement and cross-check each other. In other words, if a company were to exaggerate its statements, there’s always the possibility of verifying the data through financial documents or archived press releases.
Besides that, there's also someone like me—who hears things. For example, that a certain company planned to sell XX 3D printers in a given quarter but only sold X. And now their head of sales has a green “Open to work” badge on LinkedIn.
Of course, this still doesn’t guarantee 100% accuracy of the data we collect. As we all know, people lie. But we believe not everyone is completely corrupted—and that most provide truthful numbers, not figures inflated by a factor of ten…
That’s roughly how it works at VoxelMatters—I have no idea how it works at other firms. But perhaps it’s precisely this strict methodology of data collection that makes our current AM market estimates the most conservative.
NOTE! I’m not saying the other reports are wrong—I’m simply describing how it’s done at VoxelMatters.
It’s entirely possible that others use different calculators? I don’t know.
Now, what about growth predictions? Why do some forecast 15% growth and others 25%?
Again, it comes down to historical data and trend analysis. Davide Sher and I have been writing about the AM market since 2013. We vividly remember the rise and fall of companies that most of today’s market players either forgot or never even heard of (just ask managers at Chinese firms who Bre Pettis or Jenny Lawton were).
In other words, we separate the history and turbulence of individual companies from the market as a whole. The struggles of MakerBot and the collapse of Cubify—the pioneers of the first wave of global 3D printing hype—not only didn’t destabilize the desktop FFF 3D printer market, they arguably accelerated its growth.
The growth wasn’t stopped by the shutdown of XYZPrinting or the market marginalization of Zortrax or Ultimaker either. Others simply took their place.
The same applies to the industrial machine market, where individual company problems didn’t cause any decline in total sales value.
That’s why our forecasts show continuous, rather than cyclical growth. Historically, there have been no market crashes. And honestly, I can't envision a scenario where one would happen. Even if Nano Dimension—the current owner of virtually all IP related to metal binder jetting—decided to shut it all down, other metal 3D printing technologies would fill the gap. There would be no collapse.
Guys, by now you probably know me well enough to understand that I’m highly immune to hype.
But the AM market is growing, and it will continue to grow. Nothing will stop that.
And finally, the last point—often overlooked even by the harshest skeptics: the reported values of the AM market—whether now or ten years from now—are laughably low.
People, this market has to grow, because current levels are embarrassingly small.
Yes, at some point we’ll hit a glass ceiling (see my 2nd Market Law of Additive Manufacturing), but for now we’re still down by the carpet. That ceiling is still a long way off...
Atomic Layer from the Past:
05-20-2009: EOS sold its first EOSINT P 800 High-Temperature Peek Processing System.
News & Gossip:
Speaking of VoxelMatters, the company is partnering with AITA for activities leading up to the 35th BIMU show. The collaboration kicks off with the "Velocità, Innovazione, Valore" conference on June 18 at the Mille Miglia museum near Milan. Key AM companies like EOS, Stratasys, and Siemens have confirmed attendance.
One Click Metal has partnered with 3D Ever to expand in Portugal, offering affordable metal 3D printing backed by local consulting and training. 3D Ever, a specialist in advanced AM technologies, provides hands-on support and a dedicated showroom to help businesses adopt metal 3D printing across various industries.
Footwearology is launching two online courses on 3D printed textiles—one for beginners and one advanced. Aimed at global designers, the courses explore flexible materials, mesh design, multi-extrusion, and parametric modeling. Skills apply beyond footwear, supporting innovation in fashion, décor, and functional textile applications.
Very well said. I could not (and never) have said it better
Hi Carolyn. Please note that the 10-yr CAGR reported by Wohlers Report 2025 is 18%. The article lists it as 20.23%, which might be a typo.