What must FFF 3D printer software deliver to drive mass adoption by 2028?
RECODE.AM #10
My Monday article, focused on the end of the third era of the AM industry, sparked quite a bit of controversy and discussion. However, the debates weren’t about the main theme itself, but rather one additional prediction concerning the future development of the 3D printing market.
Namely, I stated in the article that within the next 3–5 years (i.e., by 2028–2030), desktop FFF 3D printers would become common in households, comparable to paper printers in terms of ubiquity.
There was even a comparison made to the Thermomix.
A significant portion of the commenters strongly disagreed.
The counterarguments? For example:
“A 3D printer in an ordinary home is like an exercise bike. No matter how advanced it is or how easy it is to use, 99% of people will end up just hanging clothes on it that they want to wear tomorrow.” by Jan Homola
“Without a specialized interest and a means to CAD objects, a layperson's scope is almost exclusively limited to knick-knacks (…) There's also an ingrained idea in people’s minds that ‘plastic = fragile/poorly made.’ I often see comments on hobbyist 3D printing content that ignorantly criticize a piece’s durability.” by Kevin Hall
“The horrible truth is that the vast majority of people in the world today cannot utilize a 3D printer, and that isn't going to change anytime soon. We are looking at decades of education — and that education, for kids at school to learn how to operate in 3D space, hasn't even begun.” by Dennis Ash
“Do yourself a favor — next time you're in a room with random people, ask them who is capable of making a 3D model of something they want to print. You’ll be surprised at just how few people can do this — even those working for 3D printer manufacturers.” by Dennis Ash
Naturally, this is only a small slice of a much deeper conversation (Dennis Ash’s comments, in particular, definitely deserve a separate article — I truly appreciate that he took the time to share his insights under my post). In any case, I gave the arguments some thought.
Overall, I still stand by my prediction.
To be clear — when I say that FFF 3D printers will be as popular as paper printers, I don’t mean that they’ll reach identical numbers one-to-one from yera 2025. What I’m referring to is more about general perception and adoption rate.
Today, a 3D printer in the home is still viewed as an eccentricity. In my opinion, within 3 to 5 years it will be seen as just another piece of home equipment — something like that aforementioned exercise bike: while not everyone has one, owning one isn’t perceived as anything special or unusual.
That said, the counterarguments are valid and can’t just be ignored.
So I decided to break this subject down into two separate articles. Next week, in my 3DP War Journal series, I’ll look into the concrete purchasing barriers that might prevent consumers from making the leap.
For now, I want to focus specifically on the software aspect. What’s missing? What still needs to be upgraded?
Generating models for 3D printing
The most frequently raised point in the debate was about users creating their own 3D-printable models. Drawing a parallel to desktop inkjet printers: in most cases, we print what we’ve written ourselves — so it stands to reason that on a 3D printer, we’d also want to produce our own parts and products.
The answer to that is: yes and no.
Yes — in the case of replacement parts that just broke and need to be replaced.
No — if there are online libraries of those parts readily available, which can be downloaded and printed without any modeling.
But let’s set that aside for now. Let’s assume that most users will want to create their own original parts. Where will they get the 3D models from? Surely, we all know they won’t learn how to design them. Not in three years, not in five, not even in fifteen!
Well, this is where AI-assisted design might prove to be the solution. And I’m not talking about some distant future concept, but things that already exist in some form on the market.
Take Greg Mark’s Backflip AI, for example:
Solutions like this are actually closer than many of us might think. And let’s not forget that 3D printer manufacturers — like Bambu Lab — are also quietly working on similar tools behind the scenes.
In fact, there’s a growing number of such tools — still relatively limited, yes — but expanding rapidly.
Part catalogs
That said, I personally believe that instead of creating original things — which is, of course, fun — people will be more interested in producing existing objects. Maybe slightly personalized, but fundamentally ready-made.
It’s a bit like the Thermomix analogy I mentioned earlier.
The Thermomix concept is simple: it’s a sophisticated kitchen robot that allows anyone, regardless of cooking skills, to prepare a perfect meal from any cuisine in the world.
First, you choose a dish in the app. Then you get a list of ingredients to buy. Next, it walks you through the steps — what to add and when — and the machine does the rest. Maybe you’ll still need to pan-fry something or use the oven, but that’s all explained at the start — before you even begin cooking.
You don’t invent anything. You pick from a list and cook it with the Thermomix.
The same principle should apply to 3D printers. You search for the part or object, get a list of required filaments, upload the file to the printer, load the filament, and hit print.
Wait… but that’s already how it works!
Exactly. So perhaps all that’s left is to make it even simpler, wrap it in a cleaner interface, and maybe shift that interface onto the 3D printer’s touchscreen — just like the Thermomix shows recipes directly on its screen.
Troubleshooting and user support
The final — and arguably most difficult — challenge is intelligent user support and built-in education within the 3D printer’s interface.
Instead of PDFs, forums, or YouTube videos, the 3D printer should teach the user directly — guiding them step-by-step through the printing process and even explaining why something didn’t work.
This would require interactive tutorials, contextual help, and ideally, AI-based assistance that understands naturally phrased questions.
For a new user who’s never touched a 3D printer before, that’s an absolutely critical feature. But right now, most slicers only offer basic tooltips, while more advanced advice is only available in forums or social media groups.
Designing an interface that’s simple enough for a child, yet powerful enough not to frustrate professionals, is a huge UX and communication challenge. It also requires serious investment in user experience design — something many manufacturers still hesitate to make.
If this element isn’t solved, the 3D printer will remain a tool for enthusiasts — not for everyday users.