AM market forecasts from 12 years ago – did they hold up?
The Atomic Layers: S10E21 (00288)
Atomic Layer of the Day:
Yesterday, I published a well-received article about market reports and forecasts—how they’re created and what they're based on.
In the comments on LinkedIn—both on my profile and
’s—a few people asked the same question: did the market forecasts made 10–15 years ago actually come true?Since I’ve been writing about 3D printing for the past 12 years—first on my former Polish website Centrum Druku 3D, and for the past year here, I went back into my archive and found a few reports from 2013–2015.
The reports I covered back then came from Gartner, Wohlers Associates (now part of ASTM), Canalys, Context and few others. At the time, I was primarily interested in the number of 3D printers sold worldwide—both annually and in total. So I overlooked other data points, which would be much more interesting today.
Still, what I found does shed some light on the question many of you have been asking.
So here’s a quick trip down memory lane to check how analytics firms 10–12 years ago thought the market would evolve.
But let’s begin with the comparison Carolyn Schwaar from ALL3DP published yesterday, which actually kicked off this whole discussion (CAGR values are pixelated due to controversy over their accuracy—someone seems to have made a mistake somewhere):
Alright, so we now know the current estimated size of the AM market: somewhere between $12 billion and $22 billion.
What were companies projecting 12 years ago? Let’s start with the most optimistic forecast—by Wohlers Associates.
June 2013
Wohlers Associates released its annual report on the 3D printing industry. According to their estimates, in 2012 the total global revenue of companies operating in this sector was $2.2 billion, representing a +28.6% increase over the previous year. The report projected further growth: $3.7 billion by 2015 and $6.5 billion by 2019.
Source: www.centrumdruku3d.pl
Analysts at Lux Research reached some intriguing conclusions a month earlier:
May 2013
Lux Research, an international consulting agency, conducted a comprehensive analysis of the 3D printing industry in a report titled “Building the Future: Assessing Opportunities and Challenges in 3D Printing.” The report forecasted significant market growth, but pointed to industrial, medical, and aerospace sectors as the main beneficiaries—while predicting only a marginal role for desktop 3D printers for home use.
Based on their research, Lux Research projected that in 2025, the value of the 3D printing market would reach $8.4 billion, up from $777 million the previous year. The "big three"—automotive, medical, and aerospace—were expected to account for 84% of the market. As for the consumer segment, they predicted growth from $17 million to $894 million by 2025, with a market share of less than 10%.
Source: www.centrumdruku3d.pl
At the time, Canalys also published some market evaluations:
On October 2013 Gartner released a report on 3D printer sales. Key takeaways:
Gartner forecasted a 49% increase in 3D printer sales compared to the previous year. In 2014, the growth was expected to be 75%, and in 2015 nearly 100%. Sounds impressive, but what about actual figures?
2013: 56,507 units
2014: 100,000 units
2015: 200,000 units
In October 2014, they estimated following 3D printer sales:
2014: 108,151 units
2015 projection: 217,350 units
2018 projection: over 2.3 million units.
In October 2015, Gartner estimated:
2015: 244,533 units
2016 projection: 496,475 units
2019 projection: 5.6 million units.
That last numbers for 2018 and 2019 are, are of course, ridiculous and wildly inaccurate.
It wasn’t until 2022–2023 that the market finally crossed 1 million units sold annually (across all technologies combined). Right now it is above 1 million per year, but still far behind 2 million per year.
So in hindsight, Gartner was way off and made some truly absurd predictions.
Finally, let’s end with some relatively reasonable data: a report from Context, covering 3D printers sales for the first three quarters of 2015:
So, apart from Gartner, which completely missed the mark on 3D printer sales forecasts, the other firms provided relatively sensible figures.
Even Lux Research, which made a fool of itself with its consumer market predictions, gave a market valuation that ended up below the current real-world value—making theirs the most pessimistic scenario ($8.4 billion, which we fortunately overshot by at least $4 billion).
I hope this answers your questions—at least partially. If not, feel free to keep asking, and I’ll do my best to help.
Atomic Layer from the Past:
05-21-2014: Sculpteo launched its 3D printing store on Amazon.
News & Gossip:
Atomik AM has secured £600,000 from NPIF II to expand its team and premises. The Liverpool-based AM spinout, led by Prof. Kate Black, develops sustainable metal binder jetting technologies. This follows a £125,000 investment from LYVA Labs to support commercialization and IP development for its Universal Binder.
Nikon Advanced Manufacturing and NCDMM have launched a $2.1M project to advance AM adoption of Constellium’s Aheadd CP1 aluminum alloy for defense and aerospace. Funded by OSD ManTech via America Makes, the effort includes major defense OEMs and aims to create validated material datasets using Nikon’s large-format L-PBF systems.
Axtra3D has partnered with Maquinser to expand its Hi-Speed SLA 3D printing technology in Spain and Portugal. Maquinser will provide localized support and showcase Axtra3D’s solutions at major trade shows. The partnership aims to serve key Iberian industries with high-quality, precision additive manufacturing technologies.